The European Union: Quo vadis?

Tuesday, 2 October 2018 - 11:00 am (CET/MEZ) Berlin | Author/Destination: Knut Wingsch
Category/Kategorie: Editorial, European Union, General Reading Time: 765 minutes

(Latest update: 18 July 2021) Best of all first: The EU and the Eurozone today have greater approval among its citizens than it did in the past 35 years. This is not just any indicator, but a solid basis and a work order that has so far been adopted only in part to actually address ambitious, long overdue reforms and the necessary reorientation of the EU. A nicely written white paper by the European Commission, which presents possible scenarios until 2025, isn’t enough. What is needed is a “EU Vision 2030” plan with clear timetables and sub-goals, which are constantly being updated, especially as new sub-goals always emerge from ongoing processes, where everyone can find orientation about ongoing and future developments, as well as to participate or in marketing-speak “Europe need a common future and story!” This one is a bit longer and a summary of the current challenges and opportunities, while continuing the article The European Union: Blessing or curse? Past or future?.

Content

Introduction
History of Europe and the United Staates of America
Migration debate, xenophobia, racism and right-wing extremism
Challenges and solution approaches

Greece and Macedonia
EU reforms
EU budget
Majority voting
EU of different speeds
Enlargements of the European Union
Integration of the Eurozone
EU Investment Alliance
EU Immigration Law
EU Unemployment Insurance
Real Estate and Demography
EU Security Architecture
EU Climate Policy
EU Bankruptcy Law
EU Identity
European Payment Mechanism
Learn from crises
EU-Africa Partnership
Accession of Turkey to the European Union
Union for the Mediterranean
EU accession negotiations with Albania and Macedonia
US troops in Europe
2019 European Parliament election

Economic and/or political development

Coronavirus pandemic
Trickle-down theory
Austria
Belgium, Luxembourg and Netherlands (Benelux)
Bulgaria and Romania
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia (Visegrád Group)
Denmark, Finland and Sweden (Scandinavia)
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (Baltic States)
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Malta
Portugal and Spain
United Kingdom
Turkey
Debt situation

Foreign policy

Trump’s tariffs
Trump’s anti-China and anti-EU trade war
Trade agreement between the EU and the US
EU’s trade partners
“New Deal”, the restart of transatlantic relations
EU-China Relations
Russia and Ukraine
Nord Stream 2
Iran deal
Syrian Civil War
EU and Israel
Middle East and Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Sources

Introduction
Today, people in the states of the EU live in better conditions than ever before. It should be clear to the citizens that the future viability of the states depends on their being under the strong umbrella of the EU in order to prepare themselves for the economic challenges from China, and more recently from the US, militarily from Russia (The Washington Post, 13 September 2018: 5 things to know about Russia’s Vostok-2018 military exercises, The Guardian, 20 October2018: Trump says US will withdraw from nuclear arms treaty with Russia, BBC, 21 October 2018: President Trump to pull US from Russia missile treaty, CNN, 21 October 2018: Trump says US is ending decades-old nuclear arms treaty with Russia, BBC, 21 October 2018: Russia nuclear treaty: Gorbachev warns Trump plan will undermine disarmament, CNN, 22 October 2018: Russia fires back after Trump threatens to ditch nuclear arms treaty (“funny” is that the Russian Tsar Putin has been stationed months ago the nuclear first strike weapon system Iskander-K in the region of Kaliningrad, to threaten Europe permanently, and is lamenting now, because adequate countermeasures to safeguard Europe against continued and further threats from the Kremlin shall be initiated (Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle)), NATO, 25 October 2018: Trident Juncture 18, The Washington Post, 25 October 2018: At a pivotal moment for the alliance, NATO launches biggest exercise since the end of the Cold War, The New York Times, 26 January 2019: Saving NATO, Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, The New York Times, 1 February 2019: U.S. Suspends Nuclear Arms Control Treaty With Russia, CNN, 2 February 2019: Russia follows US in suspending INF nuclear missile treaty, The Washington Post, 2 February 2019: Why Putin won’t be mad about Trump pulling out of the INF Treaty, The Guardian, 2 February 2019: Russia follows US in suspending nuclear deal, The New York Times, 2 February 2019: Russia Pulls Out of Nuclear Treaty in ‘Symmetrical’ Response to U.S. Move, The Washington Post, 2 February 2019: Following U.S., Putin suspends nuclear pact and promises new weapons, Jerusalem Post, 2 February 2019: Russia set to develop new and advanced missile systems, The New York Times, 10 February 2019: How Russia Undermined Over 30 Years of Nuclear Arms Control, France24, 12 February 2019: NATO planning for more Russian missiles: Stoltenberg and The Washington Post, 17 February 2019: Withdrawing from the INF Treaty would cripple arms control efforts for decades, The Guardian, 1 July 2019: US arms control office critically understaffed under Trump, experts say, CNN, 20 July 2019: Clock’s ticking on one of world’s most important nuclear treaties. A dangerous arms race may be next, CNN, 27 July 2019: Donald Trump’s most catastrophic decision, BBC, 2 August 2019: INF nuclear treaty: Nato ‘to avoid arms race’ after US-Russia pact ends, The Guardian, 2 August 2019: Nato and Russia trade barbs after collapse of nuclear arms treaty, CNN, 2 August 2019: NATO chief says end of nuclear treaty is ‘serious setback’, after US withdraws, Al Arabiya, 2 AUgust 2019: US to develop new missiles after exiting INF treaty, Times of Israel, 2 August 2019: US to accelerate missile program after ending weapons pact with Russia, Saudi Gazette, 2 August 2019: US pulls out of Soviet-era nuclear missile pact with Russia, Gulf News, 2 August 2019: US ends Cold War missile treaty in bid to counter China, France24, 2 August 2019: US to withdraw officially from Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, DW, 2 August 2019: Opinion: Scrapping the INF treaty is risky — and a lost opportunity, Arab News, 3 AUgust 2019: The arms race has new legs, CNN, 8 August 2019: Russia has released footage of its new ‘Hunter’ stealth attack drone, Jerusalem Post, 12 August 2019: US, Russia nuke tensions may be even worse than Iran threat – analysis, The Guardian, 17 August 2019: The nuclear arms race is back … and ever more dangerous now, CNN, 18 August 2019: What a mysterious explosion tells us about Russia’s ‘doomsday weapon’, France24, 19 August 2019: US tests medium-range cruise missile in the wake of INF treaty exit, The National Interest, 20 August 2019: Russia’s New Weapons: From Doomsday Nuclear Torpedoes to Skyfall Missiles, DW, 20 August 2019: Russia blast radiation caused by Skyfall missile, US experts say, Haaretz, 21 August 2019: Skyfall Explosion: Doomsday Weapon Accident Shows Limits of Putin’s Dangerous Ambitions). How can it nevertheless be that the colorful and cheerful Europe threatens to become a more and more dull, simple, nationalistic, fact- and learn-resistant Europe? The paradox of this is, above all, that it is the EU itself that made it possible to connect different states and their people. On the one hand, it creates EU citizens and patriots and, on the other hand, simple minded state-cross national movements. After all, nationalism by definition can only function within a nation-state, but not across multiple states, unless one understands the EU as such as a nation-state, so that EU nationalism can emerge to develop common, viable and workable solutions. It is hardly to be expected that Europe’s right-wing nationalists are able to think in such a dimension at all, although here they could take an example from the rednecks and hillbillys of the Southern United States, who have at least understood that, albeit coming from different states, they all are US citizens. That would be, even when still annoying, after all, a development and adaptation of the changed realities and general conditions (The Guardian, 21 July 2018: Steve Bannon plans foundation to fuel far right in Europe, BBC, 23 July 2018: Bannon plan for Europe-wide populist ‘supergroup’ sparks alarm, Bloomberg, 24 July 2018: Steve Bannon Wants to Divide and Conquer in Europe Too, The Guardian, 30 July 2018: Europe shouldn’t fear Steve Bannon. It should fear the hype that surrounds him, The Washington Post, 26 September 2018: A nationalist abroad: Stephen Bannon evangelizes Trump-style politics across Europe, The Guardian, 24 October 2018: The real danger to Europe? The lost sense of a common cause, The Guardian, 18 February 2019: EU parliament’s centrist coalition set to lose majority, poll finds, Arab News, 26 June 2019: Critics should not forget EU’s role in preserving peace). Overall, this article is trying to make it clear what Alexander von Humboldt already knew 250 years ago:

“Everything is connected with everything.”

History of Europe and the United Staates of America

“Only who knows where he comes from knows where he is going.” – Theodor Heuss

In order to understand the current developments in Europe, it makes sense to deal with the very varied and multi-faceted history of Europe and the states/federation building processes. This includes numerous regional, national and international armed conflicts, such as the Thirty Years’ War, which began with the Defenestrations of Prague on May 23, 1618. Under the motto “One people, one religion, one leader”, the catholic Emperor Ferdinand II tried to persuade the Protestant electorates to convert to Catholicism. The attempt failed after several lossy battles in favor of a pluralistic solution, because the acting persons came to the realization that diversity is probably better than simplicity. With that everything has already been said and everyone could have gone home happily and contentedly with this knowledge gain, in order to be able to work on a common, peaceful and prosperous Europe from now on. History went a little bit different and many other wars followed, because people are generally far less able to learn than they would like to think of themselves. If World War I and World War II had any good aspects at all, it is that the results are now deeply branded in the European collective memory and, as a result, the European Union was founded. Following the old saying, “When the donkey is too well, he goes on the ice”, from the end of the 2000s onwards, small groups were formed in the states, which eventually gave rise to national movements and parties and in fact found enough supporters to position their crude (conspiracy) theories against the EU. The vast majority of these theories are completely baseless and fact-free, which is what their supporters, who are suffering from extensive fact allergy, especially like about it. But it is also about fear of loss, especially with regard to identities (or social decline or to be even more accurate: If some Germans think that “refugees take away our jobs,” then these people should just keep the following in mind: Should a refugee, who has never been to Germany or even Europe at all, has no language skills, has no idea of how life and the labor market work here (neither in total nor in detail), be able to “take away jobs” from these Germans, then in their lives has so much gone wrong before, that even 12 million refugees and immigrants could not affect their lifes more negative than it already has been affected before. In any case, it is not the refugees who are to blame, but in most cases, they themselves. Presumably, such people would be overwhelmed even with returnable bottle sorting), even though today’s states have no clearly definable national identities because they are made up of colorful collections of duchies and principalities with partly contradictory identities and due to the numerous small and large migrations of the people over the centuries couldn’t develop clearly identifiable identities (The “Heimat” concept (homeland), on the other hand, is much easier to define, even if it can have individual different definitions). The romantic idea that there ever was a homogenous Germany is a very clear self-deception, because the country and also all predecessors in the area of today’s Germany (even more so if one includes Poland and parts of Russia (German Reich) or parts of France and Italy (Holy Roman Empire of German Nations)), Germany has always been heterogeneous, even if there were majorities and continue to exist. The same applies, of course, to all other current EU states as well, and certainly to the US. The EU offers a basic agreement on the basis of geography, namely, “We are all Europeans”, even if not all countries of the continent belong to the EU by now. With the EU still under construction, it will take quite a while for this to happen. On the other hand, how well European integration already works in everyday life is evident in the changed news situation, among other aspects. 20 years ago, only a small section of the population in Europe was interested in politics and politicians in neighboring countries. This has changed over the past decades fundamentally, because the perception has changed. In the past, it was understood as “foreign policy”, and is now understood as “domestic policy”, because the effects can have an affect for everyone.

At this point, it’s worth taking a look at the history of the United States of America. Even if no one-to-one comparisons are possible, the founding of the USA is the first and until today successful European major project, meanwhile not only more successful than the EU itself, but even the only remaining world power (other European projects, such as Canada, Australia or New Zealand, are also going very well. Overall, Europe has left its mark in many parts of the world due to colonization. Often with negative consequences, but often also with positive effects that reverberate to this day), because ultimately it is the anticipation of the EU outside of Europe. The settlements were finally carried out by people from all European countries (today, e.g., about 50 million of the 330 million Americans say to have German ancestors). Even today, the folklore and local features/peculiarities that came with the European settlers have survived in the individual states, are promoted and celebrated accordingly – all under the common roof of the United States. The EU implements this concern, ie the preservation and promotion of specific characteristics, specificities, folklore, language and food/drink, under the motto “united in diversity” even more consistently and extensively by creating appropriate laws and regulations and providing funding (Europe of the Regions, Culture in the European Union, geographical indication, European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages, Minority rights, Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union and European Convention on Human Rights). In this respect, the EU is reminiscent of the Roman Empire, but on a voluntary basis, ie a federation of different, diversified states, which keep their cultures, languages, religions and other peculiarities, but united under a common roof with self-given, common rules (Transatlantic relations).

Migration debate, xenophobia, racism, right-wing extremism and right-wing terrorism
It is actually unbelievable: the wall fell, fortunately the Soviet Union failed in its own right, as a result of which most of the Eastern Bloc gained its freedom. There was great hope for democracy, freedom and the rule of law. Especially in the eastward expansion of the EU, which only knows freedom from history lessons, the hope for freedom and democracy was huge. It is all the more surprising that the majority have once again been seduced by nationalist demagogues. From the east, this nationalistic nonsense finally rubbed off into East Germany, which was formerly part of the Eastern Bloc. Where the journey will eventually lead to remains open by now. It will certainly not be pleasing for while. Therefore the blog entry The European Union: Migration debate, xenophobia, racism and right-wing extremism was created.

Challenges and solution approaches in keywords

While dark clouds are rising on the big stage, a decades-old dispute between Greece and Macedonia is being resolved on the small stage by simply adding a “north”: The New York Times, 17 June 2018: Macedonia and Greece Sign Historic Deal on Name Change (The Guardian, 5 April 2018: The west must not just abandon the Balkans to Russia’s embrace, The New York Times, 10 April 2018: In a New Cold War With Russia, Balkans Become a Testing Ground, The Guardian, 11 July 2018: Greece to expel Russian diplomats over alleged Macedonia interference, Reuters, 13 July 2018: Word ‘Russia’ goes unspoken as Mattis meets Balkan defense chiefs, Bloomberg, 18 July 2018: Putin Has Lost His Influence in the Balkans and Macedonian referendum, 2018, The Guadian, 10 October 2018: Welcome to North Macedonia: parliament votes for name change, Reuters, 11 January 2019: Macedonian parliament agrees to change country’s name, The Guardian, 13 January 2019: Greek government in crisis over Macedonia name deal, France24, 25 January 2019: Greek parliament approves Macedonia name change deal, The Guardian, 25 January 2019: Greek MPs ratify Macedonia name change in historic vote, The New York Times, 25 January 2019: Greeks Approve Deal to Rename Macedonia, in Victory for the West, The Washington Post, 25 January 2019: Greece approves Macedonia name change, ending 28-year row, Bloomberg, 28 January 2019: NATO Dashes to Expand in Balkans After North Macedonia Name Deal and BBC, 6 February 2019: Macedonia signs Nato accession agreement).

French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed ambitious and above all necessary EU reforms. Since the formation of a coalition after the German federal elections lasted more than a year, valuable time has passed and a vacuum has arisen, which right-wing populists and anti-democrats have used to set their content-free phrases in the world. Chancellor Angela Merkel hasn’t sent clear signals on Macron’s proposals yet, although his extensive support is in Germany’s own interest. The Federal Government is still too busy with itself to work on solutions. In principle, it would be desirable to put together the need for extensive EU reforms and the future EU orientation in a plan such as “EU Vision 2030”, which is updated annually, providing predictability and taking the 500 million EU citizens with it. Here, ambitious visions for the future are demanded, especially as it has become clear from past developments that the EU tends to agree on the most weakest and flimsiest compromises, rather than orienting itself towards the top. Accordingly, this already need be taken into account in the baseline scenarios (The White House, 25 April 2016: Remarks by President Obama in Address to the People of Europe, The Guardian, 26 September 2017: Macron lays out vision for ‘profound’ changes in post-Brexit EU, DW, 17 April 2018: France’s Emmanuel Macron calls for revival of EU democracy, The Guardian, 27 August 2018: Europe can no longer rely on US for security, says Emmanuel Macron, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 27 August 2018: U2-Singer Bono: Europe is a thought that needs to become a feeling, The New York Times, 11 December 2018: E.U. Hoped to Put Its House in Order This Year. Not Even Close., The New York Times, 18 December 2018: The End of Europe?, Daily Mail, 9 January 2019: Germany, France set to sign new cooperation accord, France 24, 21 January 2019: One couple, two seats: France and Germany renew vows after golden jubilee, The Guardian, 23 January 2019: European Union: Macron and Merkel are trying to safeguard Europe, not dominate it, The Guardian, 23 January 2019: The Guardian view on Davos: elites without answers, The Guardian, 27 January 2019: Davos 2019: the yawning gap between rhetoric and reality, The Guardian, 12 February 2019: The EU looks like the Soviet Union in 1991 – on the verge of collapse, France24, 4 March 2019: Macron unveils plan for ‘European renaissance’ ahead of key EU vote, The Guardian, 4 March 2019: Emmanuel Macron: Dear Europe, Brexit is a lesson for all of us: it’s time for renewal, The Guardian, 4 March 2019: EU must learn from Brexit and reform, says Emmanuel Macron, Elysee.fr, 4 March 2019: For European renewal, The Washinton Post, 5 March 2019: Emmanuel Macron pushes European ‘renewal’ to counter nationalism, The Guardian, 5 March 2019: EU faces nationalist ‘nightmare’ in next five years, says Verhofstadt, The Guardian, 7 March 2019: Macron reached out to all Europeans, and what does he get? Scorn, Der Spiegel, 13 March 2019: Patronizing, Frustrating and Divisive: The Shortcomings of Merkel’s European Policies, The Guardian, 17 April 2019: Macron vowed to change the EU – but his chance may have gone, The New York Times, 29 April 2019: Europe’s Crisis of Integration, France24, 9 May 2019: EU plans for life after Brexit and the tussle for top jobs at Sibiu summit, Politico.eu, 8 August 2019: King Macron’s unsteady EU crown, Politico.eu, 18 November 2019: France outlines proposal to overhaul EU accession process, Politico.eu, 19 November 2019: 6 countries write to Juncker to support EU enlargement reform, Politico.eu, 20 November 2019: It’s time to update the EU’s internet rules, Politico.eu, 26 November 2019: Berlin and Paris outline plan for EU makeover, Politico.eu, 26 November 2019: How to remake the EU, Politico.eu, 27 November 2019: EU ambassadors cautious on French-German plan for Europe’s future, Politico.eu, 27 November 2019: France is back, but where is Germany?, Politico.eu, 9 December 2019: EU to prepare Magnitsky-style human rights sanctions regime, The National, 9 December 2019: EU backs global sanctions programme for rights abusers, Politico.eu, 9 December 2019: Borrell urges EU to be foreign policy ‘player, not the playground’, Politico.eu, 19 December 2019: What Macron plans for Europe, Politico.eu, 21 January 2020: Conference on the Future of Europe: Don’t mention the T word, Politico.eu, 31 January 2020: Macron: Brexit campaign based on ‘lies’ but EU must reform, Politico.eu, 6 February 2020: EU big four press Vestager to clear path for champions, The Guardian, 8 February 2020: Emmanuel Macron, pilloried at home and abroad, is Europe’s best hope, France24, 15 February 2020: France ‘impatient’ over lack of German drive to reform EU: Macron, CNN, 15 February 2020: The EU is facing a serious crisis. It’s funding the same people who wish to wreck it, The Guardian, 15 February 2020: Macron sets out 10-year vision for EU with call for more integration, Foreign Policy, 19 February 2020: European Union Unveils Proposed Tech Rules (Digital Single Market), Business Insider, 19 February 2020: Europe reveals its ambitious tech blueprint to take on Silicon Valley and China, Politico.eu, 24 February 2020: Europe is fighting tech battle with one hand tied behind its back, European Council in Foreign Affairs, 3 March 2020: Time for a geopolitical Europe: A German answer to Macron, The Guardian, 5 March 2020: Macron, Merkel and the battle for the future of Europe, Politico.eu, 20 March 2020: In EU’s retreat, a way forward).

The negotiations on the new EU budget will certainly also be interesting.

To change the unanimity of EU decisions in favor of majority voting, which would solve 90% of all challenges within a short time. At the same time, one would thus break away from the principle of the “dictates of minorities and abstruse individual interests”, especially since majority decisions need to be well-founded by each single EU state. A simple “I am against it” then no longer exist, but each state would have to explain its motives and thus at the same time signaling willingness to negotiate and explain how a compromise would have to look like, so that it would be supported. It would no longer be possible to blame Brussels for “everything thta is going wrong” (which is almost never the case anyway, while mostly EU state governments and state lobbyists are responsible for failure – see Brexit). Instead, it would be much clearer who actually brakes and blocks. For this reason, in particular the Visegrád Group opposes majority voting. The unanimity was once well meant, but actually blocks the EU unnecessary in almost all areas. Perhaps, however, in order to resolve the permanent blockades in some areas, it might be necessary to found a new federal European Union, an EU 2.0, to which only those states will be invited that are committed to European values, which obviously does not include the EU’s eastward expansion. They can then drown in their nationalisms and at the same time are no longer problem cases for the EU.

“EU of different speeds” to become reality (Eurozone, Core EU, Visegrád). If some don’t want to join programs right from the beginning, they can catch up later (backed by economic incentives) or go the way of the UK. If there is the possibility of access on the one hand, there need to be the possibility of an orderly withdrawal or, in extreme cases, the possibility of being thrown out on the other hand, until the EU has established itself fully and can’t be dismantled any longer, after becoming a federal republic (or what ever it will look like in the future). Thereafter, there should be no more opportunity to leave and this should be contractually fixed, after all, the EU isn’t a “Request Concert” event.

After the self-induced collapse and disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1990, the subsequent dissolution of the then obsolet Warsaw Pact in 1991 and the provisional end of the Cold War, many of the liberated states of the now former Eastern Bloc immediately sought membership in NATO and the European Union also to be sure not to be forced back into a dictatorship led by Russia, but instead to be able to act and make decisions much more freely in the future within a defense alliance and a free and democratic confederation of states. Basically, this also corresponded to the interests of NATO members and the EU states, even if it was clear that the road to this would be long or even very long for some candidate countries, in particular with regard to the development of functioning state institutions, the rule of law, democracy and Much more was concerned and in some cases will continue for many years or even decades. On the other hand, some others who have already achieved full NATO membership and have become EU states and have thus reached the home stretch have taken worrying setbacks in recent years (Visegrád Group, Three Seas Initiative, Romania and Bulgaria) and are moving to old (economic and/or political to Russia) or new dependencies (economic and/or political to China – New Silk Road and China-Central-East-Europe Summit). As things stand today, the “New Eastern Bloc” would no longer get beyond the applicant status for admission to the EU. In retrospect and for geostrategic reasons, the admission of the countries to NATO was correct, especially since the self-determination of the states, regardless of the respective government interests, is and will be guaranteed along the way. In retrospect, acceptance into the EU, on the other hand, is questionable or even doubtful, especially since there are obviously very different and too often incompatible definitions of universal rights, fundamental rights, democracy and freedom. For the EU, this is part of the learning process that will have an impact on the admission of federal states, just as one rightly moves further and further away from the unanimity principle and shifts to the majority principle so that individual states cannot take the entire EU hostage or at least make it much more difficult for them. Violations of jointly given rules are also increasingly punished better. The rule of law adopted by the EU is an example of this. Among other things, it is a question of making EU funds available only to those EU states that adhere to the common rules (rule of law, fight against corruption, etc.). It is quite possible that after Brexit and despite the clearly negative effects on life and the economy in the United Kingdom, countries in the eastward expansion of the EU will also decide to leave the EU. One could imagine more unpleasant scenarios. It is often argued that the EU receives good to very good approval ratings among the population of the countries of the Visegrád group, but somebody ultimately votes for their EU- and democracy-hostile regimes by a majority (in the case of Hungary in 2018 even with a 2/3 majority). Ultimately, the “good approval ratings” are primarily based on the billions in development aid from Brussels to the EU’s eastward expansion, which in Hungary, for example, finance 50% of all public infrastructure measures. With the cessation of payments, the approval rates are also likely to collapse and reach realistic rates. Brussels therefore has highly effective tools at hand (withdrawal of all development aid funds and EU budget funds up to and including the complete withdrawal of voting rights) to influence thought and decision-making processes. If the EU’s eastward enlargement continous to babbel about the “EU as Soviet Union 2.0”, Brussels can ensure that the countries are released from the EU so that the regimes in Warsaw and Budapest can make themselves the toy of their favorite dictator from the Kremlin and sooner or later to be expelled from NATO. The integration of the Balkan states (Breakup of Yugoslavia) remains a major challenge. The successor states of Yugoslavia continue to face major challenges and problems. The integration of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia is also still rocky.

Greater integration of the eurozone with its own EU finance minister, common fiscal policies and correspondingly strengthened regulations and enforcement options (European Fiscal Compact, Economic and Monetary Union of the European Union and European Stability Mechanism).

EU investment alliance to dismantle structural weaknesses in the EU states step by step, unlike the previous regional financial umbrella, whose use of funds can be described as “misappropriated” at best. Clear objectives, earmarked and with ongoing review of the use of funds, so that corruption can be erased and the money will actually arrive where it belongs to. Even the reunification of Germany and the attempt of economic adjustment of the East to the West, which will take decades to be completed and has cost so far about 1.8 trillion euros of state funds plus the trillions of private investments, on the one hand makes clear how long this adjustment processes will take among EU member countries and on the other hand how important these attempts of adjustments are.

Creating an EU Immigration Law (points-based immigration system), paying more attention to EU external border controls and simplified EU immigration procedures to take account of the changed conditions, but also to take the wind out of the sails of nationalists.

EU Unemployment Insurance, even better: a European Social Security System, with appropriate adjustment mechanisms based on the respective wages and the cost of living in the countries of origin. This not to distribute “social benefits”, but to be able to develop economic stabilizing effects. The enormous social transfers from West to East Germanyto show this exemplarily. The counter-examples are Greece, Italy and other countries that do not have these mechanisms and whose populations are more susceptible to crises – with all the disadvantages. Now some will argue that this would be pure socialism. In fact, it is a pay-as-you-go mechanisms that need to be paid into before it can be disbursed. At the same time, this ensures basic consumption and thus the preservation of jobs and entire economic sectors, even in difficult economic times. E.g., the Greek economy would never have collapsed that heavily, additionally exacerbated by the widespread impoverishment of the population, if these mechanisms would have already existed there. In addition, an EU minimum wage solution would ensure equal competitive conditions, for example in the craft sector. While so far companies from the EU Eastern Enlargement can easily underbid German companies because the personnel costs to be calculated are significantly lower than those in Germany, this would no longer be possible in the future, because then companies from the EU Eastern Enlargement would have to pay their staff that is working in Germany the same wages as German companies have to pay. Of course, not only craft businesses are affected by this problem, but almost all sectors in which SMEs operate.

Due to changed conditions, there are increasing problems with the adequate supply of affordable housing in European metropolitan areas. Different aspects contribute to this, which together contain some growing social challenges. In order to give this important topic enough room, a separate contribution has been created: The European Union: Real Estate and Demography.

Creating and maintaing a credible EU security architecture to empower foreign policy decisions and respond swiftly to changing security situations and needs, while the development/deployment of Frontex and the European Asylum Agency are, of course, only two building blocks in the overall context of the Common Foreign, Security and Defence Policy – freedom and democracy are even today neither self-evident, nor are they available for free (Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), European Intervention Initiative, European Defence Fund, Coordinated Annual Review on Defence (CARD)).
The growing understanding and awareness of the accelerating, man-made climate change is also taking up more and more space in politics, which is why a separate blog entry has been devoted to the topic: The European Union: Climate Policy.

Reform of EU bankruptcy law: Sovereign default within the EU need to be possible to prevent future bailouts, as in the case of Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Cyprus, while still allowing each state to ruin itself as it pleases, without holding the taxpayers of other states liable for it (oriented to bankruptcy law for US states that can declare their bankruptcy without the other states or Washington, D.C. can be held liable or have to take over the regulation of the damage). Sovereign default should have no impact on membership in the EU or the Eurozone, but may cost a reputation on the free capital market. One possible example for this scenario is currently Romania. The country has had very presentable growth rates for years, and the government is fueling them additionally with public investments and several social benefits instead of creating reserves. A small crisis would be enough to put the country in the same situation as Greece was and is, because there aren’t sufficient buffers given.

Formation of a EU identity in connection with a European citizenship, as a counter model and draft to the devastating and egotistical nationalisms, and the acknowledgment that Europe has a migrant history and is thus an immigration and emigration continent for centuries.

Establish a European payment mechanism to circumvent US sanctions and their consequences for SWIFT transaction traffic. The EU is the largest single market in the world. This need to be taken into account, as well as its independence in payment transactions. Until then, it is a long and stony path, but worth the efforts (DW, 27 August 2018: Germany urges SWIFT end to US payments dominance).

Learn from crises and implement appropriate mechanisms: Since 2008, the EU and parts of its states are in permanent crisis mode. This happens quite often in a young federation of states, not least because it has not yet been possible to provide for all eventualities, and the stolid nature of the EU also means that it takes much longer to cope with crisis, because the responses to them (in the best case even before they can become crises at all) are all to often not promptly and quickly enough (see “majority voting, instead of unanimity”).

Developing the EU-Africa partnership (Economic Partnership Agreements (Compact with Africa (CwA)) and Reuters, 12 September 2018: EU’s Juncker eyes Africa free trade pact) at the governmental level, implementing far better anti-corruption measures, while investing in the economies and education, to create prospects for the people and curbe the root causes of emmigration (The Telegraph, 3 September 2018: China raises fears of ‘new colonialism’ with $60 billion investment across Africa, Der Spiegel, 14 June 2019: The Voice of Beijing: China’s Expanding Media Dominance in Africa, Politico.eu, 7 December 2019: Into Africa: Von der Leyen visit kicks off ‘geopolitical Commission’, Gulf Times, 7 December 2019: New EU chief in Ethiopia for first trip outside bloc, France24, 16 January 2020: Record 45 mn people need urgent food aid in southern Africa : UN, Politico.eu, 9 February 2020: An all-Africa free-trade deal to warm the EU’s heart, Politico.eu, 10 February 2020: Council President Michel tells African leaders a changed Europe wants new ties, Gulf Times, 24 February 2020: Africa isn’t ready for currency unions, Politico.eu, 27 February 2020: In search of allies, EU turns to Africa, Politico.eu, 27 February 2020: African Union to EU: We’ve got our own strategy, thanks, Politico.eu, 28 February 2020: To be top gun on foreign affairs, Borrell says EU must buy weapons, Arab News, 12 March 2020: Why Europe has made boosting Africa ties an urgent priority, Politico.eu, 19 March 2020: Africa’s coronavirus outbreaks seeded from Europe, Politico.eu, 23 March 2020: Coronavirus hits Africa’s mega trade deal plans, DW, 21 April 2020: Coronavirus: Debt relief key to helping Africa, says EU Commissioner, Politico.eu, 8 October 2020: EU’s Africa reboot meets cool reception, DW, 20 November 2020: Africa-Europe relations: 2020 was a lost year, Politico.eu, 9 December 2020: EU-AU meeting postponed over ‘agenda issues’, The Guardian, 19 January 2021: Europe can only fix its relationship with Africa if it exorcises its colonial ghosts, France24, 6 March 2021: France shifts policy on aid to Africa to counter rising Chinese influence, DW, 16 April 2021: Multilateral Agreements: Post-Cotonou: EU reaches agreement with African, Caribbean and Pacific States, DW, 7 May 2021: Morocco recalls ambassador in Germany over Western Sahara, France24, 18 May 2021: Macron hosts African leaders to address economic impact of Covid-19 (Western Sahara conflict), Cotonou Agreement, Organisation of African, Caribbean and Pacific States (OACPS), Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) and Africa–China relations).

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The Accession of Turkey to the European Union and the upgrading of the Customs Union have been put on hold until further notice. The reasons for this are the unclear Cyprus issue, the war against the Kurds in southeastern Turkey, the invasion of Northern Syria, the creation of the presidential system and the associated widespread de-democratization. The accession talks will not be terminated by the EU for strategic and diplomatic reasons. This step is left to the Turkish government.

In addition to some other challenges arising from the current problematic relationship with Turkey itself, this also includes challenges for the perspectives and aspirations of the countries of the Levant and North Africa. That is one of the reasons why it would be advisable to finally bring the Union for the Mediterranean to life, to develop viable alternatives, especially as the EU, because of the ongoing military conflicts in the Middle East, is likely to intensify its efforts in the near future for possible accession candidates in and from Europe only.

The EU accession negotiations with Albania and (North) Macedonia will start in 2019 (Balkanization, Politico.eu, 29 May 2019: EU should start membership talks with Albania, North Macedonia: Commission, Politico.eu, 3 October 2019: EU chiefs call for start of membership talks with North Macedonia, Albania, Reuters, 10 October 2019: France opposes EU membership talks with North Macedonia, Albania: diplomats, Al Jazeera, 15 October 2019: France warns of ‘endless soap opera’ on Balkans EU membership, Politico.eu, 19 October 2019: EU’s Balkan breakdown reveals split among leaders, The Guardian, 18 October 2019: EU failure to open membership talks with Albania and North Macedonia condemned, Al Jazeera, 23 October 2019: Did Macron kill the EU enlargement dream?, Jerusalem Post, 2 November 2019: Are the Balkans splitting thr EU apart?, Al Jazeera, 2 November 2019: How the EU balkanised the Balkans, Politico.eu, 8 November 2019: Von der Leyen: EU path for Western Balkans is of ‘great strategic importance’, Politico.eu, 9 November 2019: Diplomatic blow-up after Macron calls Bosnia a ‘ticking time-bomb’, Politico.eu, 13 December 2019: 9 EU countries push back on French enlargement revamp, Politico.eu, 4 January 2020: North Macedonian PM resigns, Politico.eu, 10 January 2020: Von der Leyen: EU must keep its promise to North Macedonia and Albania, Politico.eu, 27 January 2020: Merkel: Albania, North Macedonia should get green light for EU talks in March, Politico.eu, 4 February 2020: Brussels puts French accent on EU enlargement, The Guardian, 5 February 2020: EU focuses on enlargement into Balkans after Brexit, Jerusalem Post, 15 February 2020: Macron opens door to North Macedonia, Albania EU accession talks, France24, 16 February 2020: EU in ‘frank’ talks with Balkan nations seeking membership, The Guardian, 17 February 2020: Albania PM likens country to jilted lover in its effort to join EU, Politico.eu, 17 February 2020: Albanian PM plays down hopes of start to EU accession in March, Politico.eu, 24 February 2020: North Macedonia’s PM: EU credibility at stake over membership talks, Politico.eu, 18 March 2020: EU ambassadors discuss opening talks with Albania, North Macedonia, The Guardian, 23 March 2020: EU can start talks with Albania and North Macedonia over joining, Politico.eu, 23 March 2020: EU moves closer to opening talks with North Macedonia and Albania, Politico.eu, 24 March 2020: North Macedonia, Albania get green light for EU membership talks, Politico.eu, 9 April 2020: Western Balkans call for exemption from EU medical export restrictions, Politico.eu, 6 May 2020: Croatian PM on EU-Balkans summit: The meeting is the message, Politico.eu, 6 May 2020: The Western Balkans belong with Europe, Politico.eu, 7 May 2020: 4 takeaways from the EU’s virtual Balkan summit, Politico.eu, 24 June 2020: EU’s two-faced Balkans strategy, The Washington Post, 26 June 2020: The Trump administration’s attempts at Balkans diplomacy are getting more complicated (well, Richard Grenell is involved in it, so that the only direction, the topic can go, is south), Politico.eu, 4 July 2020: Serbian President Vucic takes German lessons, Al Jazeera, 14 July 2020: Serbia-Kosovo deal: Can the EU succeed where Trump failed?, Politico.eu, 18 August 2020: North Macedonia gets new government, CNBC, 4 September 2020: Serbia, Kosovo to open Israel embassies in Jerusalem, Politico.eu, 21 October 2020: Bulgaria threatens to veto North Macedonia’s EU talks, Politico.eu, 17 November 2020: Bulgaria blocks EU membership talks for North Macedonia (because of short-sighted, nationalistic idiocy, the most corrupt EU member country blocked the strategical important EU enlargement to include the Balkans), Al Jazeera, 7 December 2020: On the Macedonian-Bulgarian dispute and historical revisionism, Haaretz, 14 December 2020: As America Retreats, China Claims a Corner of Europe, Al Jazeera, 14 December 2020: Dayton peace (dis)agreement, 25 years on, The Algemeiner, 2 February 2021: EU Threatens Kosovo Over Plan to Open Jerusalem Embassy (United Nations Security Council Resolution 478), Euractiv, 2 February 2021: EU regrets Kosovo’s decision to open an embassy in Jerusalem, Israel Hayom, 2 February 2021: A determined message for radical Islam, Middle East Monitor, 3 February 2021: EU warns Kosovo against opening embassy in Jerusalem, Al Jazeera, 12 February 2021: Kosovo is slowly recovering from Trump’s coup, DW, 14 February 2021: Political shift predicted in Kosovo election, Al Jazeera, 14 February 2021: New generation faces old guard in Kosovo election (another clear defeat for Trump’s incompetent poodle Richard Grenell), DW, 14 February 2021: Kosovo leftist Kurti declares victory after election, France24, 14 February 2021: Kosovo’s Vetevendosje poised to win election, early results show, The National, 19 February 2021: Bosnia warns EU it won’t be held hostage over migrant crisis, DW, 23 April 2021: Germany calls for normalization of Serbia-Kosovo ties, Al Jazeera, 27 April 2021: Albania’s Socialists win election and third straight mandate, Arab News, 27 April 2021: Albania PM Edi Rama prepares to celebrate as third term beckons, Politico.eu, 19 May 2021: North Macedonia PM: EU risks losing sway in Balkans, ABC News, 21 May 2021: Bulgaria upholds veto on North Macedonia EU accession talks, NPR, 29 May 2021: How A Chinese-Built Highway Drove Montenegro Into Crippling Debt, Reuters, 5 July 2021: Merkel sees strategic case for Balkan states joining EU, Der Spiegel, 9 July 2021: A Journey Through the Troubled Former Yugoslavia: “They Will Never Stop Hating Us”).

Interesting things also appear in the deployment of US troops in Europe (United States European Command, United States Army Europe and List of United States military bases). Trump’s administration is thinking about deploying more troops into Poland to “face Russia’s threat to Poland,” but above all, of course, because the right-wing Polish government is willing to spend two billion euros a year (given that Poland is the largest EU net beneficiary country, the question arises as to who will ultimately bear the costs. Poland certainly not), so that a “Fort Trump” can arise (The Guardian, 18 September 2018: ‘Fort Trump’: Donald Trump considers request for US military base in Poland and The New York Times, 19 September 2018: Fort Trump? Poland Makes a Play for a U.S. Military Base). At the same time, the Trump administration checks to what extent US troops can be withdrawn from Germany. Ostensibly, it is also about the relocation of jobs from Germany to Poland. In fact, this would mean a complete turnaround for Germany and its western neighbors, as the battle lines from the Cold War, which lay on the border between Germany and the GDR, would be officially relocated to the Polish border with Russia. In this case, the western EU states should just let new Eastern bloc and the Trump administration do, and be helpful to realize this project, especially as it clears the way for the other EU states, to develop the Common EU security architecture by forming much closer military co-operation among each other, thus creating the not only necessary but long overdue European addition to NATO. Together with the Visegrád group, this is not feasible at present, so it is a fortunate coincidence that their nationalists now join forces with the White House nationalist in securing the EU’s eastern flank (Suwalki gap). Apart from the almost ridiculous military image (the Bundeswehr and the Foreign Ministry are currently having staggeringly weak performances) that the Federal Republic give itself and thus disqualifying its foreign policy (Israel’s self-proclaimed over-friend, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, does not even manage to sent a single frigate as escort for merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz in an EU mission. The fact that the SPD here adopt AfD positions (no deployment of the Bundeswehr abroad to protect life and limb) is altogether irritating at best), the relocation of the marching up area between East and West to the east of Poland would be quite pleasant. In this respect, the “threat” of the United States, presented here by Trump’s lapdog Richard Grenell, is more likely to be seen as a friendly farewell gesture. When Trump needs “jubilation” for the upcoming 2020 United States presidential election, he is certainly much better off in even racist Eastern Europe than in Western Europe: Der Spiegel, 10 May 2019: Rising Tensions: Trump’s Iran Escalation Poses a Threat for Germany, The Atlantic, 25 June 2019: What the Iran Crisis Reveals About European Power, Foreign Policy, 12 July 2019: How Europe Can Save What’s Left of the Iran Nuclear Deal, Atlantic Council, 7 August 2019: Why Germany Resoundingly Rejected Joining a US-Led Mission Against Iran, DW, 9 August 2019: US threatens to withdraw troops from Germany, The Telegraph, 9 August 2019: US threatens to pull out troops stationed in Germany in row over defence spending, NBC News, 9 August 2019: Ambassador Grenell tells Germany to boost defense spending or U.S. will withdraw troops, Xinhua, 9 August 2019: U.S. ambassador threatens to withdraw troops from Germany over military spending, dpa international, 9 August 2019: US threats to withdraw troops cause stir among German politicians, Jerusalem Post, 15 August 2019: ‘German foreign minister ignoring lessons of Auschwitz,’ supports Iran. The US troops are for sure totally enthusiastic to move into the infrastructure of eastern Poland, but there is no way hard enough to finally be allowed to relocate into “Fort Trump”. In the meantime, the Federal Government can invest the billion-dollar sums previously spent on the US troops presence instead in national defense in order to achieve the 2% NATO target and to make the Bundeswehr fully operational. The cleared areas could be used well for the construction of affordable housing units. All this does not change the fact that German foreign policy is currently not living up to its requirements. Europe’s largest economic power not only has rights but duties alike. This includes the deployment of the Bundeswehr in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East, and to the extent that one can expect a successful outcome of missions. To be a world champion of moral sly foxing is no longer enough. Words must be followed by deeds, because otherwise foreign policy is ineffective. In spite of all the big talk by Trump and his puppets, it is obvious that this episode will end one wonderful day, while German/EU-American relations (fortunately without Trump and his administration, including Richard Grenell – Die Zeit, 20 February 2017: Transatlantic relations: Yankee Goes Home, Atlantic Council, 15 March 2018: A Storm is Brewing in Transatlantic Relations, Carnegie Europe, 5 July 2019: Can Ursula Von Der Leyen Save the Transatlantic Relationship?, Politico.eu, 19 August 2019: Trump’s German frenemy, Der Spiegel, 21 August 2019: Radio Silence: German-U.S. Ties Are Breaking Down, Politico.eu, 4 October 2019: Trump names Ric Grenell his special envoy for Serbia and Kosovo) will still be very important, even when NATO and US haters and Putin apologists will not like it at all. Russia is not a serious option and, with the exception of trade, China, in many ways and on many levels, will first have to become one over the next decades. To be fair, one has to admit that after all there has been a considerable change of mentality to the extent that at least the German political leadership has understood (and even supported by the Greens), that it is no longer an option to easily submerge, when it comes to the topic of “Bundeswehr missions abroad”, because of the dramatic shifts in the transatlantic relations. So, of all people, the US hooligan Trump was needed, to let the German government become aware of the new political realities, instead of taking the easy path and accomplish a relatively smooth foreign policy transition during the Obama administration. So far, however, the changes in foreign policy are mainly noticeable in theory and during Sunday speeches. It will probably take a while before this will become visible in practice and internationally, too.

Between the 23 and 26 Mai 2019, the European Parliament election will be held.

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The European Union: Quo vadis?