The European Union: Coronavirus Pandemic

Monday, 30 March 2020 - 12:00 pm (CET/MEZ) Berlin | Author/Destination: Knut Wingsch
Category/Kategorie: General, Editorial, European Union Reading Time: 622 minutes

(Latest update: 5 October 2023) Over the coming months, the world will now experience not only how individual states will deal with the global coronavirus pandemic, but also how governments can or cannot intercept the consequences. It can be observed in real time how a real and worldwide crisis is reacted to, who has made provisions and built up reserves or has only wobbled. Already the unemployment numbers and the number of bankruptcies in the first few weeks will provide sufficient information and thus also give an answer to which social and state systems are viable even in crises and take their weakest with them instead of having to leave them behind. It can be assumed that the countries will cope best with the crisis, that are regularly accused of charging too high taxes and having too strong social systems in “regular times” (some Americans would even call it “pure socialism” until a big crises hit in. Then more and more people are questioning why the richest country in the world cannot provide as excellent social security as Germany has for decades – everything always has its advantages and disadvantages), because these countries can now set their full strength come into effect and let it unfold. Whatever the outcome of this “competition” will be, let us all remain prudent, relaxed, reasonable and show solidarity and, of course, let’s stay at home if possible, because the more people abide by the rules, the sooner we can get this spook under control. Even if it will take months before a vaccine will be available, we shouldn’t give the virus the pleasure to let destroy us socially and economically. Stay healthy and #flattenthecurve #StayHomeSaveLives #Coronavirus #covid19 (Coronavirus warning app for Germany)

It can already be said that, in addition to all the negative aspects, Corona has also brought some absolutely positive aspects to light. This means that all countries worldwide have been shown their own strengths and weaknesses so that they can be better addressed in the future. At the same time, the global impact of the corona crisis has caught the world’s populists, autocrats and dictators and disenchanted them for their followers (The Emperor’s New Clothes). Hopefully thit will be reflected in the results of the next round of elections aroud the world.

Of course, it is important to get information from reliable sources in order to avoid fake news or to drive yourself nuts, because those who die of fear or panic are dead as well. A public source is e.g.: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, EU vs Disinformation. Relying on information from the current US, British, Chinese, Russian, Brazilian and some more weird governments has now proven to be a significant health hazard. It is therefore important to follow the reporting of the reputable and reliable media, which have set up corresponding sections on the subject: The New York Times, CNN, The Washington Post, The Hill, San Francisco Chronicle, Los Angeles Times, Miami Herald, Tampa Bay Times, The Atlantic, National Public Radio (NPR), Politico.com, Bloomberg, Financial Times, France24, The Times, The Guardian, BBC, Politico.eu, Haaretz, Times of Israel, Palestine Chronicle, Arab News, The National, Al Jazeera, Gulf Times, Al Arabiya. To hide the often imbecile comments under the reports, there are extensions or add-ons for browsers that can be installed very quickly and easily. This gives you the option to switch comments on website on or off at any time. This applies not only to news websites in general, but also to Facebook in particular. It then seems to become a bit “calmer” and you can deal with the actual topic.

Discussions are currently taking place at European level about alleged lack of solidarity, in connection with the assertion or threat that the EU could break up. A look across the pond to America shows that this is unfounded. The states there are currently also sealing themselves off from each others, in connection with travel restrictions (The New York Times, 10 April 2020: Driving and Travel Restrictions Across the United States) in order to at least slow the spread of the virus. Nevertheless, nobody there comes up with the idea of questioning fundamental solidarity or even bringing the dissolution of the USA into play. Same counts for the present and future of the EU. In addition, the EU states have already relaxed the transport system so that the flow of goods within the Schengen area is guaranteed, so that there are no supply bottlenecks. Medical needs are exchanged and the distribution of intensive care patients is getting better and better to relieve hotspots. To top it off in economic terms: even after 244 years, there are no obligations on the part of the U.S. government or the U.S. states to protect other U.S. states from bankruptcy (just as old, by the way, are the constantly recurring disputes about the budget, which is also about the distribution of wealth from the northern states to the southern states. In this context, the EU is more of a trainee). It is hard to understand why this could be different, 27 years after the EU was founded, in the relationship between Brussels and the EU states or between the EU states. It is also clear, however, that the lessons from the banking and financial crisis 2009 cannot be that of responding to the upcoming economic challenges in Southern and Eastern Europe with the EU-typical “small small”. Although there was ample time after 2015 to correct the design flaws of the eurozone, it still does not seem to have happened, which is why there is now the same friction as five years ago. “Learning from crises and mistakes” does not seem to be a concept preferred by the EU states. That the countries of Northern Europe are not willing to risk their creditworthiness and very favorable interest rates by agreeing unconditional and unlimited funds to Southern and Eastern Europe and, at the same time, a debt pooling, to compensate for the inability and mismanagement of other EU states, is understandable. After all, it does not help anyone if all EU states are broke together. At the same time, “what ever it takes” support need to be provided to make sure that the economic downturns of the countries in Southern and Eastern Europe will be as soft as possible, because the shocks that would otherwise be given would naturally also spread to Central and Northern Europe. For example, if Italy were on its economic knees, Spain, Portugal and Greece would be pulled into the abyss as well and France would alarmingly wobble. With a delay, it then hits the north and may even blow up the euro zone as such. The resulting economic devastation would lead to mass unemployment and impoverishment and the resulting from it civil war-like conditions. Not even the most insane nationalist can seriously want that. Although the consequences of the banking and financial crisis have already shown this impressively, it obviously need to be pointed out again and again from time to time.

Germany’s foreign trade figures show how strongly the German economy is dependent on foreign trade, namely with almost 40% of the total economic output and the majority of this in turn with other EU states. In absolute self-interest, there can be no ducking away with regard to massive support in favor of EU states that have been hard hit by the corona crisis, unless you want to shoot yourself in both feet several times or in other words: If Germany does not support its best “customers”, that will lead to job and prosperity cuts in Germany. The Federal Government as the voice of the largest and strongest economy not only in the EU but in Europe as a whole decides on the extent, both positive and negative. It thus holds the fate of the EU in it’s hands, even if no federal government has really wanted to do so yet. If you are honest, it was the case almost from the beginning of the EU. The EU and all its predecessors since the end of the Second World War are built on exactly that, namely that Germany is an economic giant that should be integrated into narrow multinational Western frameworks for the benefit of all, also to prevent another crazy mustache to turn German voters into overly nationalistic, “Herrenrasse” idiots. The resulting opportunities and possibilities for Germany in Europe and the world are regularly missed out or even straight out denied by far left-wingers and far right-wingers in particular, although this doesn’t change the facts, but only makes it clear that they don’t have the slightest idea of this topic as well. Retailers, service providers and end customers have known the means to be used in customer loyalty for decades: discount programs, bonus miles, payback points, free promotions. If you transfer this to entire countries, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece now want to redeem their bonus miles and payback points in the form of a (reconstruction) fund or the significant expansion of the EU budget to cushion the consequences of the corona crisis. That makes a lot of sense, although the currently announced 500 billion euros will have to be multiplied and a mix of transfer and credit programs in connection with interest and repayment suspensions will have to be given, so that Germany’s “customers” have the necessary freedom to be able to get back on their feet. The sooner and better this succeeds, the sooner the productions in Germany will run under full steam again. This has been deliberately described in purely economic terms, especially since the term “solidarity” and the related matters that should be taken for granted within the EU doesn’t currently seem to be bestseller. Current critics of the mentioned solution will later try to sell it full-bodied as “a pure act of the benevolent and downright selfless northern states towards the greedy southern states” anyway. Of course, this will only work for the rather simple and/or nationalistically charged part of the populations (at this point we can also put an end to the old wives’ tale that it would be “gifts from the northern states to the southern states”. For everyone, who is interested, it has always been clear that for every tax euro invested there is at least a factor of 10 in returns due to various effects, often even a lot more. So that it’s not about Samaritanism, it’s about tough business). If you make yourself honest here, then the consequences of the corona crisis for the northern states, with all given problems, are Sunday walks in comparison to the devastations in the southern states, some of which still have to struggle with the consequences of the financial crisis 2008, so they weren’t able to build up adequate provisions. The northern states opened their own rescue packages weeks ago, which actually hold very well and will continue to do so. This also worked so well because the northern states generally got through the 2008 financial crisis much better than the southern states and were able to build up reserves through foreign trade surpluses – with money from abroad. This is why “Payback Time” is now. On the other hand, if you listen to the negative comments on the (reconstruction) fund or the significant expansion of the EU budget to cushion the consequences of the crisis of some politicians, even finance ministers, of the northern states, you can only be surprised. Either they are actually as stupid as they sound, they have never understood the EU, they have no macro-economic skills, or all of it. In any case, they practice what they accuse the southern states of: only wanting to take advantage of the EU, but not wanting to assume the resulting obligations. This won’t work. Anyway, for the foreseeable future, the so-called Eurobonds will only continue to take place in the wildest dreams of heads of state in southern Europe, because they are politically unenforceable in the north. A key promise when the euro was introduced was that there would be no debt pooling under any circumstances. In addition, the EU substructure, which would be necessary to talk about joint financing, i.e. a significant deepening of EU integration towards EU statehood, is missing, which means that partial sovereignty of the EU states is to be given to Brussels (in particular, options for access and control in financial policy). Surprisingly, the northern states would be more willing to do so than the southern and southeastern states, which makes the motivation of the latter seem rather doubtful when it comes to “debt sharing”. At least the “road map” becomes clear again before the toxic box “bonds” could even be opened. In the south this is of course known, but for domestic reasons they have to pretend that they have never heard of it before, being able to say after the conclusion of the negotiation “We fought hard, but more than what we got now wasn’t possible!”. On the other hand, there are more than enough possibilities and tools with which the north can actively support the south. This includes the ECB buying up government bonds/debenture bonds again on a large scale. In the meantime, even Greek trash papers are accepted as security. That says a lot about the will to help. Added to this is the European short-time work payment solution suggested by Ms. von der Leyen, which can be the entry point to a European social security system and directly benefits employers and employees in the EU member states. This maintains jobs on the one hand and sustains basic consumption on the other, so that economic downturns are cushioned very gently (the instrument has been known in Germany for several decades, but is new to other states). The ESM can provide funds of 240 billion euros for a limited period of time on favorable terms to deal with further economic hardships. In addition, there is a loan program from the European Investment Bank worth 200 billion euros, which is intended to benefit small and medium-sized companies. All in all, that’s over 500 billion euros plus the ECB’s purchases of 750 billion euros. If the going gets tough, the funds could go completely to southern and south-eastern Europe, because the north can finance itself on its own anyway. On the other hand, these are repayable loans, which can usually also be found in the government debt ratio of the states. With the exception of the conditioning of the ESM funds and the Eurobonds, there is vast agreement in Brussels about the support measures. The remaining EU states are still Germany’s largest trade partners. If the largest partners break apart, this naturally has a direct impact on the turnover of German companies, and thus on the number of jobs, taxes, etc. It is therefore in Germany’s own best interest to intervene as early as possible. The longer we wait, the more expensive it will become for everyone (Politico.eu, 27 March 2020: Only EU solidarity can avert economic disaster, Politico.eu, 29 March 2020: Virtual summit, real acrimony: EU leaders clash over ‘corona bonds’, Politico.eu, 29 March 2020: Von der Leyen brands corona bonds a ‘slogan,’ setting off firestorm in Italy, Politico.eu, 30 March 2020: EU budget to be at ‘heart’ of coronavirus response, von der Leyen says, Politico.eu, 1 April 2020: EU response to corona crisis ‘poor,’ says senior Greek official, Reuters, 1 April 2020: EU proposes short-time work scheme to avoid coronavirus lay-offs, Politico.eu, 1 April 2020: Europe’s coronavirus identity crisis, Politico.eu, 1 April 2020: Berlin and Paris pitch competing solutions to ‘corona bonds’ conundrum, Politico.eu, 2 April 2020: Von der Leyen calls for ‘tangible’ solidarity on €100B jobs scheme, Politico.eu, 2 April 2020: Italy’s future is in German hands, Politico.eu, 3 April 2020: EU cool on corona bonds as economic plan takes shape, The Guardian, 5 April 2020: Europe’s future is at stake in this war against coronavirus, France24, 9 April 2020: EU finance ministers reach agreement on coronavirus rescue deal, Politico.eu, 9 April 2020: Finance ministers strike deal to combat coronavirus recession, BBC, 10 April 2020: Coronavirus pandemic: EU agrees €500bn rescue package, Politico.eu, 10 April 2020: EU leaders to discuss recovery package on April 23).

With regard to the effects of the corona pandemic on the real estate industry (The European Union: Real Estate and Demography), it is not yet possible to make a clear forecast for Germany as of 26 March 2020, especially since the effects will depend on the duration of the restrictions. During this time, the rental and purchase market is practically frozen. On the one hand, there are little practical possibilities for relocations due to the Germany-wide ban on contacts (“social distancing” – The Times, 23 April 2020: Peter Brookes Times cartoon: April 23 2020 – Social Distancing: At last, a use for Rees-Mogg), on the other hand there are economic fears for the future, so that relocations are postponed anyway. Of course, this has negative effects especially for landlords, seller, property manager, developer, brokers, notaries, mortgage banks etc., because the market is now frozen for them too, so that the transaction volume from last year will certainly not be reached. Of course there will be catch-up effects, but complete cancellations due to economic uncertainties as well. With the help of the aid packages that have just been approved by the federal government, the country at large will be doing just fine economically for the next two to three months. In the long run, of course, such a state of emergency cannot be maintained. But the corona crisis affects a country that has just 10 years of continuous growth behind it, which is why the government debt is reduced to 60% while reserves could be built up. In addition, many companies have gone through so-called “fat years”, have also been able to build up reserves and have created a record number of jobs, with an unemployment rate of 5%, which means full employment. From an economic point of view, you can’t be much better prepared, even if you would like to do entirely without such an event. If Germany can be reopened in May, the country would have got away with a remarkable black eye. The economic output will decline compared to the previous year, also because the industry cannot restart as quickly as to just shut down (international supply chains), which means that unemployment figures can be expected to rise, but the feared “big clearcut” would be prevented. Related to rental apartments, however, it is already clear that it will have little impact on rents. There would have been well over 100,000 coronavirus deaths (which, fortunately, cannot be expected from the current state of affairs) with own apartments so that there would be a slight relaxation on the housing market. Even if it were, it would initially only reduce the hidden homelessness, i.e. people, who currently live with parents, relatives or friends because they cannot find own apartments. The situation is different in retail (except food), hotels, restaurants, tourism (how extensive the crisis would become became clear, among other things, after the federal eagle was displayed two days in a row in the smartphone’s news list and the travel app belonging to the Federal Foreign Office referred to the “Worldwide Travel Warning”, so that, in addition to the depressing feeling it created, the corona epidemic got an “upgrade” to corona pandemic), other service segments (the development on the market for office space will be pretty interesting, too), culture, arts, sport events etc.. Here, the Coronavirus can lead to noticeable changes and losses in sales. The longer the crisis lasts, the more business will have to be shifted from stationary retail to online shops and delivery services. This eliminates retail space because only intermediate storage space is required instead. With the increasing duration of the crisis, it is becoming more and more clear that video conferences are very practical and, above all, inexpensive alternatives to traditional business trips. The media in particular are doing this right now. More and more news and discussion groups are taking place from the home office. What is a relaxing experience for those involved, because even elderly seniors can easily use Skype, Zoom, WhatsApp, FaceTime & Co. (HowToGeek.com, 16 March 2020: The 6 Best Free Video Conferencing Apps), of course, has an unfavorable effect on those indirectly involved (hotels, restaurants, transport, etc.). So in the future it will be important for those involved to weigh up what makes more sense: having the own “studio” at home/suitably equipped workplaces in companies or the common good by making use of the services of others for a fee. Ultimately, it will be a question of developing a healthy mix of the two, because with all justified pursuit of profit, it is of no use to anyone if at the same time the common good falls apart and several thousand unemployed are “produced”, because this creates completely different problems that certainly should be avoided. As a rule, companies work in a profit-oriented manner, so that the question is largely answered by itself. The crisis will have a particularly positive impact on the progress of digitization. Even the most stubborn refusers will suddenly realize how important digitization really is. In the future, therefore, investments can be assumed because they are essential for the economic survival (Politico.eu, 25 March 2020: Europe is going bold on digital. You should support it., Politico.eu, 14 April 2020: EU Zooms ahead, despite worries over app, CNN, 22 May 2020: A ‘city’ for online shopping is being built in Dubai, BBC, 10 July 2020: The remote work experiment that upped productivity 13%). The hotel industry, gastronomy, tourism and the art and culture business will have to deal with the consequences of the crisis the most, because there can be no catch-up effects here (a dinner that has not taken place cannot be sold twice later, nor can a canceled trip, etc.), so it is unclear how many of these companies can open again after the crisis. After all, most other industries can expect to generate higher sales after the crisis.

All in all, after the crisis, we will find out that life goes on, that the earth has not plunged into the sun or crashed in any other way and that the vast majority of Germans aren’t experiencing economic consequences in daily life because only a limited number of people will be involved in the actual regulation of the economic damages. The vast majority of people will continue to live their everyday lives normally, maybe supplemented by a couple of alternatives that some got to know during the break. The current general uncertainty up to scaremongering (the famous “German Angst” has obviously become an export hit) is to be understood insofar as there is no effective remedy against Corona yet, but that will also come. Just like the completely meaningless precautionary purchases (one has to be very simple-minded, or at least dont have the slightest idea of the extent to which basic care is actually kept and guaranteed in Germany in order to fall into precautionary purchases. After all, in the second half of 2020 this will lead to half of the population of Germany having to eat canned food, so that the supermarkets will be empty, because fewer customers are on site, and offer a whole new, almost luxurious shopping experience. “Social distancing” thanks to canned food :-D But one number is remarkable: sales of soaps have increased by 337%. You have to ask yourself how many people before Corona have largely given up on hygiene and how many still do so today? And as a personal note: How could Germany actually have started two world wars and the Holocaust, with a people that has been raving about the end of the world when toilet paper wasn’t available in the supermarkets for two days in a row? This whining bunch can’t even tie their shoes, let alone hold a gun in the right direction. It is a mystery), the scaremongering concerning the economic downfall is meaningless as well. This is written by someone who should have experienced the end of the world at least four times and the outbreak of the Third World War (but of course one have to say that we all know who started the first two. So of course, there can be some fears about a third world abroad. Ultimately, however, we decide when it will start again and since we Germans have nothing like it in the planning at the moment, we can remain to stay totally relaxed on the topic) three times in the course of his life – none of this has actually happened. It will be the same with the forecasted consequences of the corona crisis. It can of course happen that there will be a significant downward swing for a short time, which will, however, quickly go up again, so that the full-year result compared to the previous year will be negative, but certainly no Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse will move through Germany. It is possible that there will be some manageable cuts, but not much more will happen in Germany. Germany is moaning at a very high level, while at the same time maintaining practically exemplary social security – yes, the short-time work payments in Germany is sometimes lower than in other EU states, but it is granted for much longer than in other states. Other EU states will be affected much more, in this case, unlike during the banking and financial crisis, through no fault of their own. Here, Germany, as all of Europe’s largest and strongest economy, not “only” of the EU, must clearly take the initiative to significantly weaken the expected shock waves. Every action that the Federal Government starts will be criticized from all sides, as it was during the banking and financial crisis. You can’t please everyone. It is important to want to achieve results with the best intentions and to have the backbone to enforce unpopular decisions. This is exactly what I learned from talking to US counterparts when I asked them how they deal with the constant criticism of US solutions (that was during the Obama presidency). Germany will take over the presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of 2020, at a time when “the hut is likely to burn”. Angela Merkel’s chancellorship is characterized by crisis management. If anyone can do crisis management at EU level, she can. Let’s be confident that she will succeed again.

At the same time, in such situations, and when the federal government and the federal states open their wallets, the lobby organizations of various orientations speak out loud, of course, to indicate how “systemically relevant” they consider themselves to be so that they can get a piece of the cake. Few of these industries are systemically important or dependent on support, but of course they can give it a try. It is sometimes quite frightening, brazen and strange when you see who is speaking up. How badly must the management of stock corporations have operated if their companies cannot take three months off? How bad must large and traditional medium-sized companies have been doing business if their companies cannot last three months? On what basis were they given rental contracts at all? According to their own current information, they are constantly at risk of bankruptcy! Since when has it been the state’s task in a social market economy to take on entrepreneurial risks from the private sector (companies, investors etc.)? If the state provides aid so that companies can distribute dividends while at the same time having their staff financed at government costs (short-time work allowance), then something went badly wrong. This form of debt pooling isn’t acceptable and should therefore be ended immediately and punished in the same way as is already the case with non-beneficiaries for emergency aid in Berlin. In a free market economy, companies that cannot withstand the pressure of the market or the market situation are disappearing from the market and that is correct (and also applies during the Corona crisis). Their market shares are then taken over by their competitors or completely new players. It is a permanent self-cleaning process of the market. There is no comprehensive insurance for entrepreneurial risk or yield, but also no upper limit for profit from entrepreneurial activity or yield. If you want the latter, you must take the former into account. Anyone who rejects either of these has no business in the entrepreneurial camp. It’s different in socialist countries, of course. There, permanently deficient kolkhozes and combines are financed by the general public – until the state bankruptcy is inevitable. Fortunately, this form doesn’t exist in Germany, but instead the free, social market economy.

It is much more important that those who “kept the shop going” during the crisis, as Chancellor Merkel rightly said, will be better off in the future. Only when this has been done can we talk about other topics, because this group will remain at the forefront in future crises. Each chairperson of the board should also bear in mind that it is precisely these people who will be responsible for their care in the future. They should therefore think carefully about how to treat those from whom they want to be looked after/cared for in the future. Keyword: Karma :-) The fact that the community and city association has its say is very understandable. There is indeed a great economic burden here that must be absorbed by the federal and state governments. In this respect, the temporary extension and conversion of the “Soli” (an additional tax to cover the costs of the German reunification) would be justified. In addition there are micro-entrepreneurs and of course the cultural business:

At the height of WWII, Winston Churchill was challenged to defend a budget that called for an increase in arts funding.

“How can you propose this at a time of extreme national crisis?” asked one member of Parliament.

Churchill replied, “I do it, sir, to remind us what we are fighting for.”

All others can humbly say “thank you” for the aid programs and then think again about their own and actual roles in our society. The aid programs have just given them the time to do so. The “social distancing” that has been prescribed since March 2020 has of course led to restrictions, but also noticeably good sides, which should be maintained well beyond Corona. Conspiracy mystics are not happy to hear this or even let their actually promising careers go down the drain on their own initiative (just one of the many C and D celebrities from around the globe who are obviously massively overwhelmed with their role model functions: Jerusalem Post, 25 July 2020: Germany’s antisemitism czar calls to investigate German celebrity chef), but at the end of the day these small groups are dispensable for the overall social cohesion anyway.

Intermediate result: At the turn of the year 2020/2021 a lot of light can be seen at the end of the tunnel and it is not the light of an oncoming train, but an effective vaccine that will now be inoculated step by step to the EU citizens (or as Karl Valentin already knew to report: “First I waited slowly and then faster and faster”). A lot has happened so far. The following links to newspaper reports document this extensively. At the moment, of course, everyone is still familiar with this, but in five years’ time some will be wondering how it actually went “back then” and will then find a lot of information here. It is clear that most of the forecasts from spring 2020 were based on the basic orientations, with very few assuming such a long duration. So far, the countries that have come through the pandemic best have been able to offer broad support measures. Here the EU has been able to assert itself well and has also grown with its tasks. Measures have been taken that will strengthen the EU well beyond the pandemic and contribute to greater integration and solidarity. The course of the pandemic in the individual EU states was, however, in some cases considerably different. Germany has so far got away with a good deal, which is also due to its economic performance and is due to the fact that reserves could be built up in previous years, which are now being drawn from. The new borrowing has nevertheless reached remarkable heights, which have so far been manageable. It is unmistakable that the limits of the resilience of all those involved are slowly being reached. Some are even well beyond that (corona deniers and other Covidiotes). The vast majority of the population is nevertheless very disciplined, not least because the end of the spook is foreseeable in the middle of 2021 (or when at least 50 of the 80 million Germans have received their two doses of vaccine). It will probably go back to partial normality as early as April / May, especially since the number of infections will then decrease considerably. In retrospect, it was interesting to see how the majority of the population faced the pandemic. Initially rather incredulous or even helpless, because it became increasingly clear that it was not just a regional outbreak with a few thousand affected people, but that all 7.8 billion inhabitants of the planet are equally threatened, finally regaining their composure and taking the necessary measures in order to be able to survive the situation as best as possible based on the current state of affairs and increasing knowledge about Covid-19 (which sometimes changed on a daily basis). After all, it was clear early on that it was a virus, so there were no guilty parties who could be brought up and powerless, but the “slippery bastard” Corona could only be dealt with with a vaccine and drugs that had to be developed. Scientists and researchers from all over the world have teamed up on an unprecedented scale to develop this vaccine in record time and were successful in various ways by the end of 2020. Now production has to be ramped up successfully worldwide. This is a bumpy and anything but easy path, but it will also be crowned with success. Nevertheless, there is the usual and completely unjustified whining from the capitals of the federal states towards Brussels. Although Brussels was commissioned to procure the vaccines for all states, it can only implement this to a limited extent due to the lack of competencies and therefore had to include the special requests of the individual states, which are sometimes completely contradictory. It is quite a impudence when there are now increasing voices from the states who seriously want to make believe that it would not be due to their own inadequacies that the EU procurement channels now have to be the ones that they have now become. The simplest example of this is the cost per vaccine dose. While Western Europe, especially Germany, can easily afford any currently approved vaccine, Eastern Europe cannot. There is also the fact that western vaccines are not even trustedin the east, so that Hungary, for example, uses Russian (Sputnik V) and Chinese (Sinopharm) vaccines (in this case, of course, it is also because Orbán has been deep in Putin’s pocket for years and is hoping for strong Chinese investments in Hungary). Brussels cannot be held responsible for either one or the other. Still, there are enough simpleton who try anyway.

As was to be expected, most of the economy has come through the pandemic well thanks to government support programs. The prognosis is more difficult for the stationary retail trade (with the exception of the food retail trade), the gastronomy, hotel, art and sports business. How many of these companies switch from lockdown to closedown mode (insolvency) can only be roughly estimated so far. Obviously, however, Corona acts like a time lapse that significantly accelerates the developments that have already been evident for some time. Sales in online retail have increased to the same extent as stationary retail has recorded a decline in sales. To a large extent, this will remain the case after the pandemic. The winners were those retailers who already had an online shop before the outbreak of Covid-19. Losers are those who have missed the train (winning back market share afterwards is very difficult, especially for “lone fighters”). The logistics industry was also able to grow significantly. Manufacturers of household appliances of all kinds have made the business of their lives in Germany and hardware stores certainly had no problems either. Overall, it can be assumed that the inner cities will rearrange and realign themselves in the medium term. This also against the background of falling rents for retail space due to the expected oversupply of space.

On a business level, the desk could be cleared so far that for the first time in years the table top could be seen and not only guessed, and finally had enough time to calmly develop new projects, concepts and products. On a personal level, you could of course draw a lot of positive aspects from having more time for own fields of interest than in the previous 30 years, i.e. looking for a new hobby, deepening knowledge, reading books, opening up new individual topics, refreshing job-related topics or start a complete reorientation, etc. For a not that small number of German citizens, it was enough to simply “watch Netflix empty” or else, just the way everyone wanted to use the free time. Unimagined luxury that many people will certainly wish back after the pandemic.

One can be particularly excited to see how the “new normal” will affect professional life. Finding a good, healthy transition that is manageable for everyone will be a challenge, especially when it comes to speed and performance. It will not go from 0 to 100, but initially only from 0 to 60, and then gradually increase the pace.

Next interim result at the end of 2021: It has been clear to all interested parties since the summer of the year that Corona will be with us for a few more years. Up to now, booster vaccinations have to be given, but other treatment options will certainly be available in the future. Similar to the flu, Corona has a “boom” in autumn and winter, while spring and summer are much quieter. A gain in knowledge that everyone can work with and adjust accordingly. Politicians were once again “completely surprised” by this development, partly as the result of the Bundestag elections and the ongoing coalition negotiations. The executive federal government obviously and understandably no longer feels responsible for it and “Olaf and the traffic light men” (SPD (red), FDP (yellow) and Greens (green)) are not yet in office. So fate took its course once again and Germany runs knowingly and widely unprepared into the 4th wave, which is already running with full force. Again, almost all heads of the federal states have proven to be incapable of community solutions and this rubs off on their electorate, who now believe they can do what they want, which drives the infection and incidence numbers from one all time negative record to the next. The subject of “personal responsibility” is wrongly reinterpreted as “pure ego trip” and leads to the expected results. Obviously, it doesn’t work without clear government instructions and guidelines. Far too many are otherwise quite obviously completely overwhelmed with their (personal) responsibility.

Over the course of the year there became clear social divisions between those who have been vaccinated or those who have recovered on the one hand (around 75% of the population for whom the booster vaccination is due and has once again been remarkably poorly prepared, although the need has been known for many months) and unvaccinated people on the other hand visible. Except for those who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons, it must be stated that a minority is tyrannizing a majority with their refusal by ensuring that Corona cannot be fought once and for all, but that it will instead remain permanently, associated with all the negative consequences for the economy, society and social affairs. Opponents of the vaccination can be divided into the group of those who have reservations about possible long-term effects (which do not exist: either you die relatively immediately after the vaccination or everything is good and will remain so) and the Covidiotes, who are already totally lost. At the beginning of the pandemic, I still had the hope of relatively few corona deaths. Since the pandemic is now largely a “pandemic of the unvaccinated”, I now think that some more thousands corona deaths would actually not be a bad thing: It would keep the unemployment figures and rates low and stable and at the the same time, wipe out the corona precariat with a damp cloth. Judging by how they have performed over the past few months, it’s hard to believe that anyone would miss them – not even at home. In this respect: they want it that way, so may Corona free them from their sufferings and miseries. It is also worrying that some of the guys have children, so that the child welfare risk can be assumed 100,000 fold.

In the past few months there have been repeated demonstrations, some of which have been extremely violent, although a clear distinction has to be made here as well: On the one hand, the largely peaceful demonstrations of professional groups and industries took place that are economically up to their necks or even beyond that, i.e. the basis of their livelihood is being pulled from under their feet by Corona and demonstrations are of course an effective means of drawing public attention to it and on the other hand, once again, the Covidiots, whose whining and yelling no one takes seriously anyway, because it is completely absurd and therefore irrelevant (from the news today, November 18th, 2021, I learned that the latest fad is to self-administer wormer cures for horses and cows, because they consider them to be more effective than the corona vaccinations. What else can you say about that? The psychiatric hospitals in Germany and the EU seem to be completely overcrowded. There is hardly any other way of explaining why the Covidiotes are still running around free and untreated instead of being forcibly admitted). One can only feel sorry for the medical staff who have to take care of the covidiots. In addition, they have much more important tasks to do, namely taking care of the lives of people who have not brought themselves into dire straits and should therefore receive priority treatment.

While on the one hand there is an abundance of vaccines in the economically strong countries of the West, also because vaccination offers are not taken up, the poor and poorest countries are still struggling to give their populations access to initial vaccinations at all. Ultimately, of course, it is clear that the pandemic can only be combated effectively if the entire world population has access to vaccination offers. As long as this is not the case, delivery failures, raw material shortages and disruptions in logistics and supply chains will remain, which of course will also affect the final prices of the products, as can be seen from the highest inflation rates in the West for decades. In retrospect, however, one can also see that those who predicted that retail / online sales (furniture, household appliances, clothing, etc.) would decline due to the pandemic, were so dramatically wrong .. my goodness, were they wrong, so incomprehensibly wrong. On the contrary, they exploded. The transactions in my bank account are impressive proof of this! 😯 Joking aside: In fact, sales have plummeted, especially of course in traditional, stationary retail. Online trading, which was able to absorb and intercept a lot, continued to benefit from this. For shopping enthusiasts, online shopping is of course not a full replacement for hours of stroling in stationary retail stores. The small, owner-run shops in particular are closing in rows and, unfortunately, with it the backbone of shopping, because after all, nothing is more boring than having to go to chain stores with their uniform offers because there is no adequate alternative on site. That, too, will change the inner cities permanently in the coming years.

After two years of the corona pandemic, it is already remarkable with which concentrated irresponsibility is proceeded by politicians at the end of the year and in view of the Corona variant Omikron. The presumably new government coalition around “Olaf and the traffic ligth men” scored a brilliant own goal even before the government took over. There is no need to even speak of the completely uncoordinated “State Minister’s Conference”. If there weren’t so many positively self-reliant citizens (that explicitly excludes the Covidiots. It is quite remarkable how much space the media gives to this comparatively very small bunch of screamers, rowdies, extremists and terrorists, instead of concentrating on those who have real problems with and because of Corona, but who are nevertheless and continue to make great efforts to remain within the social consensus. The reporting thus creates a distorted picture of the situation and gives the impression of a “social division”, which objectively doesn’t even exist. Germany has always had a share of 20 to 25% confused on various topics. Most of them are harmless weirdos, followers and everyday troublemakers who only have one thing in common that they want to be “against everything”. Today they are against corona measures, tomorrow against snow in winter and the day after tomorrow against sun in summer. They do not contribute to the “social division”, but in the worst case suffer from divided personalities, but mostly “only” have an ambivalent relationship to everyday situations. So among the opponents of the corona measures and especially the vaccinations, there are a lot of people who have actually already received the booster vaccination. The 20 to 25% confused also include 5 to 7% really crazy enemies of democracy and the constitution, whose political arm is the AfD and who are never concerned with the topics, but always with abolishing the rule of law and eliminating our free-democratic basic order including our established societal system. This sad bunch will certainly not achieve a “social split”. But they know which buttons have to be pressed so that the media jump on the bandwagon to try to turn a mosquito into an elephant, instead of reporting on the millions of sane people who are exemplary citizens and try to overcome the pandemic as prudently and quickly as possible), the country would already had gone belly up, given the political leaders. It is as if politics had learned absolutely nothing from the pandemic. The obviously completely counterproductive stumbling block “federalism” proves once again to be a first-rate creator of chaos (instead of creating a mechanism that, for example, in times of pandemics, concentrating the complete management and issuing of instructions on the Federal Chancellery), which at the same time ensures that every state leader is of the opinion to cook his own soup, only to make an already complicated situation worse, but in the end nobody wants to take the responsibility for the resulting social and economic failures – but at the same time seriously expecting to be re-elected for the swath of devastation left behind. That will probably not work. So it really comes as no surprise to anyone, that confidence in politics and their ability to act is noticeably dwindling. In addition, the unholy combination of “making any wild individual decisions, but not wanting to face any consequences” damages the role model functions of these people considerably, especially since this misses the realities of life. Of course, those who make decisions have to face the consequences of it – positive as well as negative. Also and in this respect, it would be only logical to concentrate the control of the pandemic measures on the Federal Chancellery.

It is now summer 2022. After the corona waves from autumn and winter subsided, there was a summer wave and further waves are already taking place around the world. However, Germany is on summer vacation for the time being, especially since the corona vaccinations suggest relative security for a weakened course of a corona infection. It is becoming apparent that in the future, in addition to the flu shots, you should also get a corona vaccination every year before the start of autumn to be on the safe side. The economic consequences of the past Corona months are currently mixed with the consequences of Russia’s war of aggression and annihilation against Ukraine and are piling up to a veritable inflation rate, which the majority of the population is and can continue to cope with well, but not by everyone. In addition to the corona-related interruptions in global supply chains and the resulting disruptions in production, there is also a shortage of staff in Germany, which will become more noticeable in the coming years. All of this and in connection with the no longer guaranteed gas supply from Russia will hold some challenges for European societies as a whole for the upcoming autumn and winter. Internationally, potential conflicts with China are on the horizon, possibly also with Iran, so that when viewed subjectively, Corona, as one of the many crises to be overcome, seems to be getting smaller.

COVID-19 pandemic in the European Union:

COVID-19 pandemic in the EFTA states:

COVID-19 pandemic elsewere:

COVID-19 pandemic in the Union for the Mediterranean:

COVID-19 pandemic in the Gulf states: